A crisis in making as elderly numbers shoot up

The number of elderly people in India is increasing rapidly, with the latest report estimating that those above 60 years comprise around 10.5 per cent of the country’s population of 1.4 billion.

“There are 149 million persons aged 60 years and above in 2022 (as on 1 July) … By 2050, the share of older persons will double to 20.8 percent, with the absolute number at 347 million, according to the India Ageing Report 2023 “Caring for our elders: Institutional Responses” released recently.

This means that by 2050, one in every five Indians will be an elderly person.

“This unprecedented rise in the ageing population will have significant implications for health, economy and society in India,” the report warns, and says that the well-being of the current and future older generations should be one of the immediate priorities of the government and other relevant stakeholders.

The report adds that amongst South Asian countries, the pace of ageing in India is moderate with the proportion of the aged increasing to 20 percent in 2050 and 36.1 percent in 2100. World Population Prospects 2022 projects that other bigger and stronger economies such as Japan and China will be experiencing high to very high growth of the elderly population in the future which can go beyond 40 percent of their total population.

Across the world, there are 1.1 billion persons aged 60 years or above in 2022, comprising 13.9 percent of the total population of 7.9 billion.

“Over the next three decades, the number of older persons worldwide is expected to double to 2.1 billion by 2050, with the share rising to 22 percent of the total population. This increase in the number and share of older persons will be visible across all regions of the world. In more developed regions, the share of older persons will increase from 26 percent in 2022 to 34 percent in 2050, while in less developed regions, it will increase from 11.5 percent to 20 percent during the corresponding period,” the report said.

The India Ageing Report goes on to add that in general, ageing is defined in terms of chronological age with a cut-off at 60 or 65 years (in part because it broadly coincides with the age at retirement). However, in many developing countries, chronological age may have little to do with retirement as majority of the elderly are engaged in the informal sector for as long as they can work, with no specific retirement age.

In India, the cut-off age to define older persons is generally considered as 60 years.